Cut-off trend analysis

Cut-off trend analysis

Cut-off trend analysis refers to the study of cut-off marks over a period of time to identify patterns and factors influencing them. In banking exams, cut-off marks are the minimum scores that a candidate must obtain in order to qualify for the next stage of the selection process or for final selection. By analysing the cut-off trends for exams like IBPS PO, SBI PO, IBPS Clerk, and RBI Grade B, candidates can better understand the competition level, difficulty of the exams, and prepare more effectively.

Let’s break down the key factors affecting cut-off trends, followed by a detailed analysis of cut-offs for major banking exams.

Factors Influencing Cut-Off Trends

1.       Number of Vacancies:

o    The higher the number of vacancies, the lower the cut-offs tend to be, as more candidates can qualify for the next stage.

o    If the number of vacancies is low, the competition increases, pushing the cut-off marks higher.

2.      Number of Applicants:

o    The more candidates that appear for the exam, the higher the competition. This usually results in higher cut-off marks.

o    A surge in applicants (e.g., due to unemployment trends or fewer alternative job opportunities) can push cut-offs upwards.

3.      Exam Difficulty Level:

o    If the exam is tougher than in previous years, the cut-offs tend to be lower as fewer candidates score high marks.

o    On the other hand, if the exam is relatively easy, cut-off marks are higher due to better overall performance by candidates.

4.      Normalization of Marks:

o    Most banking exams use the normalization process to adjust the difficulty level across different shifts and sessions. This process can affect the cut-offs by balancing scores across different batches.

5.      Reservation Categories:

o    Cut-offs differ for various categories such as General, OBC, SC, ST, and EWS. Typically, the General category cut-offs are the highest, while reserved categories have lower cut-offs.

6.     Sectional vs Overall Cut-Offs:

o    Banking exams often have sectional cut-offs (minimum marks required in each section) in addition to overall cut-offs. A candidate must clear both to proceed to the next stage, which can influence the preparation focus.

Cut-Off Trend Analysis for Major Banking Exams

1. IBPS PO (Probationary Officer)

The IBPS PO exam typically has moderate to high cut-offs depending on the difficulty level and number of vacancies. Below is a trend analysis for the past few years:

Analysis:

• Prelims: The Prelims cut-offs fluctuate between 49 and 60. The 2020 cut-off was higher because the exam was relatively easier, and the number of candidates was high. However, in 2022 and 2023, the cut-offs fell slightly due to more vacancies and the normalization process.
• Mains: Mains cut-offs are lower than Prelims due to the exam's higher difficulty level. For example, in 2022 and 2023, the cut-offs were in the range of 70–80, reflecting the tough competition and limited number of vacancies.

2. SBI PO (Probationary Officer)

The SBI PO exam is known for its higher level of difficulty, and cut-offs reflect the competitiveness of this prestigious exam.

Analysis:

• Prelims: The Prelims cut-offs for SBI PO vary between 58 and 71. In 2019, the cut-off reached 71 due to a larger number of candidates and relatively easier questions. However, in later years, it remained around 58–63, indicating a higher difficulty level.
• Mains: The Mains cut-offs range from 85 to 105. In 2019, the cut-off was higher because the exam was slightly easier, but from 2020 to 2023, it dropped as the level of difficulty increased.

3. IBPS Clerk

The IBPS Clerk exam is one of the most competitive clerical exams, and the cut-offs are highly influenced by the number of vacancies and the exam's difficulty.

Analysis:

• Prelims: Prelims cut-offs for IBPS Clerk range between 47 and 58. In 2020, the cut-off was higher due to the easier nature of the exam and increased competition. From 2021 onward, the cut-offs stabilized in the 47–50 range.
• Mains: Mains cut-offs are generally around 78–85 marks. The cut-offs for 2020 and 2019 were on the higher side due to a larger number of candidates scoring well.

4. RBI Grade B Officer

RBI Grade B is one of the most prestigious banking exams, and the cut-offs reflect its high level of competition.

Analysis:

• Prelims: Prelims cut-offs for RBI Grade B are around 65–67 out of 200. The cut-offs are relatively low compared to other exams due to the high difficulty level.
• Mains: The Mains cut-offs fluctuate between 180 and 240, reflecting the tough nature of the exam. The cut-off for 2020 was higher as the exam was less difficult, but it dropped in subsequent years.

Cut-Off Trend Summary

1.       Increasing Competition: Over the years, the cut-offs for major banking exams have generally increased due to higher participation and limited vacancies. Exams like SBI PO and RBI Grade B have consistently high cut-offs due to the prestige associated with these jobs.

2.      Fluctuations Due to Difficulty: Cut-offs can fluctuate significantly based on the difficulty level of the exam. When the exam is easy, cut-offs rise, and when it’s challenging, cut-offs tend to be lower.

3.      Impact of Vacancies: The cut-off marks tend to decrease when the number of vacancies increases. For instance, in years when IBPS or SBI announces a large number of PO or Clerk vacancies, cut-offs may drop slightly.

4.      Normalization Effect: Normalization, especially in multi-shift exams, plays a key role in determining cut-offs. The process balances scores across different shifts, leading to fair cut-offs, even if the difficulty level varies slightly across different sessions.

Conclusion

Cut-off trend analysis provides valuable insights for banking exam aspirants. Understanding the past trends helps candidates set realistic targets and prioritize their preparation accordingly. With a clear focus on the factors that influence cut-offs, such as exam difficulty, vacancies, and competition, candidates can better plan their study strategy and aim to score above the predicted cut-offs to secure a place in the final merit list.